DDM Analysis: 600999.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$28.53 - $68.92	$42.35
Multi-Stage	$31.57 - $34.62	$33.07
Blended Fair Value	$37.71
Current Price	$17.11
Upside	120.38%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.97%	17.18%	0.99	0.91	1.25	1.06	0.86	0.78	0.83	0.57	0.74	0.64
YoY Growth	-	-	8.95%	-26.84%	18.09%	22.64%	10.39%	-5.70%	44.17%	-22.15%	14.61%	215.70%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.60%	6.46%	9.05%	7.30%	4.39%	5.50%	5.57%	3.99%	5.46%	4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,107.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,716.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8,391.63

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,421.56	1,513.47	908.08
Cash Retained (M)	8,391.63	8,391.63	8,391.63
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,421.56	-1,513.47	-908.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5,970.07	6,878.16	7,483.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,953.65	8,953.65	8,953.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.67	0.77	0.84
LTM Dividend per Share	0.42	0.42	0.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.67	0.77	0.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.08	1.18	1.25
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	2.97%	3.97%	4.97%
Fair Value	$28.53	$42.35	$68.92
Upside / Downside	66.72%	147.49%	302.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,107.79	12,588.26	13,087.78	13,607.14	14,147.10	14,708.48	15,149.74
Payout Ratio	30.69%	42.55%	54.42%	66.28%	78.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,716.16	5,356.79	7,121.77	9,018.39	11,054.32	13,237.64	14,013.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	2.97%	3.97%	4.97%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,964.07	5,012.28	5,060.49
Year 2 PV (M)	6,115.82	6,235.19	6,355.71
Year 3 PV (M)	7,176.77	7,387.91	7,603.14
Year 4 PV (M)	8,152.03	8,473.35	8,804.08
Year 5 PV (M)	9,046.43	9,494.33	9,959.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)	247,247.82	259,489.32	272,210.96
Equity Value (M)	282,702.94	296,092.37	309,994.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,953.65	8,953.65	8,953.65
Fair Value	$31.57	$33.07	$34.62
Upside / Downside	84.54%	93.28%	102.35%

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China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (600999.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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