Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Yueyang Forest & Paper Co., Ltd. (600963.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $3.52$2.86
Multi-Stage$5.45 - $6.00$5.71
Blended Fair Value$4.29
Current Price$4.42
Upside-2.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.74%-9.47%0.110.240.230.180.160.160.170.240.240.27
YoY Growth---55.57%5.58%31.52%10.81%-2.20%-4.44%-30.72%0.81%-9.98%-7.93%
Dividend Yield--2.36%4.90%3.24%3.02%2.64%4.43%4.39%5.30%3.59%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)423.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)207.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)216.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.7652.9831.79
Cash Retained (M)216.34216.34216.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.76-52.98-31.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.58163.37184.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,684.561,684.561,684.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.26%-1.26%-0.26%
Fair Value$2.29$2.86$3.52
Upside / Downside-48.17%-35.19%-20.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)423.81418.45413.16407.94402.78397.68409.61
Payout Ratio48.95%57.16%65.37%73.58%81.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)207.47239.20270.09300.16329.43357.91378.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.26%-1.26%-0.26%
Year 1 PV (M)222.70224.97227.25
Year 2 PV (M)234.11238.92243.79
Year 3 PV (M)242.22249.74257.40
Year 4 PV (M)247.50257.79268.39
Year 5 PV (M)250.35263.42277.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,975.878,392.348,826.03
Equity Value (M)9,172.759,627.1810,099.89
Shares Outstanding (M)1,684.561,684.561,684.56
Fair Value$5.45$5.71$6.00
Upside / Downside23.19%29.30%35.65%

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