DDM Analysis: 600863.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.78 - $23.36	$12.34
Multi-Stage	$8.43 - $9.25	$8.83
Blended Fair Value	$10.58
Current Price	$4.09
Upside	158.80%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.25%	3.16%	0.24	0.16	0.10	0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.02	0.07	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	48.16%	64.00%	-10.82%	0.00%	31.25%	220.04%	30.44%	-72.56%	-53.44%	-10.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.03%	3.47%	2.96%	3.58%	4.05%	3.26%	0.89%	0.75%	2.20%	4.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,063.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	304.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,759.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	412.71	257.94	154.77
Cash Retained (M)	1,759.30	1,759.30	1,759.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-412.71	-257.94	-154.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,346.59	1,501.36	1,604.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,638.57	6,638.57	6,638.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.23	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.23	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	3.04%	4.04%	5.04%
Fair Value	$7.78	$12.34	$23.36
Upside / Downside	90.24%	201.71%	471.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,063.55	2,146.93	2,233.67	2,323.92	2,417.81	2,515.50	2,590.96
Payout Ratio	14.74%	29.80%	44.85%	59.90%	74.95%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	304.25	639.68	1,001.72	1,391.97	1,812.12	2,263.95	2,396.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	3.04%	4.04%	5.04%
Year 1 PV (M)	595.80	601.58	607.37
Year 2 PV (M)	869.00	885.95	903.06
Year 3 PV (M)	1,124.70	1,157.77	1,191.47
Year 4 PV (M)	1,363.73	1,417.45	1,472.73
Year 5 PV (M)	1,586.88	1,665.39	1,746.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	50,394.41	52,887.71	55,478.74
Equity Value (M)	55,934.52	58,615.85	61,400.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,638.57	6,638.57	6,638.57
Fair Value	$8.43	$8.83	$9.25
Upside / Downside	106.01%	115.88%	126.14%

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Inner Mongolia MengDian HuaNeng Thermal Power Corporation Limited (600863.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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