DDM Analysis: 600819.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.05 - $1.51	$1.28
Multi-Stage	$2.69 - $2.96	$2.82
Blended Fair Value	$2.05
Current Price	$7.08
Upside	-71.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.18%	-10.60%	0.06	0.04	0.07	0.09	0.11	0.09	0.09	0.16	0.18	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	40.29%	-33.68%	-28.95%	-14.16%	28.08%	-4.82%	-44.09%	-13.00%	23.03%	-21.24%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.22%	0.86%	1.13%	1.66%	2.23%	1.78%	1.51%	3.13%	2.22%	2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	143.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	41.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)	102.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	28.75	17.97	10.78
Cash Retained (M)	102.66	102.66	102.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-28.75	-17.97	-10.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	73.91	84.69	91.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	906.49	906.49	906.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.14	0.15
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	-4.79%	-3.79%	-2.79%
Fair Value	$1.05	$1.28	$1.51
Upside / Downside	-85.11%	-81.98%	-78.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	143.77	138.32	133.09	128.05	123.20	118.54	122.10
Payout Ratio	28.59%	40.87%	53.16%	65.44%	77.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	41.11	56.54	70.74	83.79	95.75	106.69	112.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.68%	6.68%	6.68%
Growth Rate	-4.79%	-3.79%	-2.79%
Year 1 PV (M)	52.45	53.00	53.55
Year 2 PV (M)	60.88	62.17	63.46
Year 3 PV (M)	66.89	69.02	71.20
Year 4 PV (M)	70.91	73.94	77.06
Year 5 PV (M)	73.29	77.22	81.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,109.95	2,223.10	2,341.06
Equity Value (M)	2,434.38	2,558.45	2,687.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	906.49	906.49	906.49
Fair Value	$2.69	$2.82	$2.96
Upside / Downside	-62.07%	-60.14%	-58.12%

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Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington Glass Group Co., Ltd. (600819.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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