DDM Analysis: 600654.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.48 - $0.68	$0.58
Multi-Stage	$0.70 - $0.77	$0.74
Blended Fair Value	$0.66
Current Price	$3.22
Upside	-79.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-24.83%	-3.86%	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.06	0.08	0.09	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	-36.17%	-79.98%	35.43%	10.12%	25.93%	-63.07%	-20.42%	-6.69%	15.07%	791.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.18%	0.32%	1.72%	1.47%	1.93%	1.14%	2.70%	2.61%	0.52%	0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	206.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	200.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	41.38	25.86	15.52
Cash Retained (M)	200.29	200.29	200.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-41.38	-25.86	-15.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	158.91	174.43	184.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,835.87	2,835.87	2,835.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.06	0.06	0.07
WACC / Discount Rate	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.48	$0.58	$0.68
Upside / Downside	-85.06%	-81.98%	-78.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	206.90	204.83	202.78	200.75	198.75	196.76	202.66
Payout Ratio	3.19%	20.55%	37.92%	55.28%	72.64%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.60	42.10	76.89	110.97	144.37	177.08	187.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.89%	9.89%	9.89%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	37.92	38.31	38.70
Year 2 PV (M)	62.39	63.66	64.96
Year 3 PV (M)	81.11	83.62	86.18
Year 4 PV (M)	95.05	98.99	103.05
Year 5 PV (M)	105.02	110.49	116.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,612.82	1,696.81	1,784.25
Equity Value (M)	1,994.31	2,091.88	2,193.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,835.87	2,835.87	2,835.87
Fair Value	$0.70	$0.74	$0.77
Upside / Downside	-78.16%	-77.09%	-75.98%

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China Security Co., Ltd. (600654.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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