DDM Analysis: 600618.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.70 - $20.12	$14.53
Multi-Stage	$9.13 - $9.99	$9.55
Blended Fair Value	$12.04
Current Price	$10.36
Upside	16.22%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.88%	46.64%	0.23	0.36	0.40	0.00	0.10	0.12	0.03	0.05	0.06	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	-36.15%	-10.00%	9,800.21%	-95.96%	-16.67%	242.86%	-26.68%	-26.19%	-46.86%	2,333.84%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.32%	4.26%	4.00%	0.03%	1.28%	1.67%	0.37%	0.45%	0.53%	0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	793.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	20.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	772.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	158.71	99.20	59.52
Cash Retained (M)	772.70	772.70	772.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-158.71	-99.20	-59.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)	613.99	673.51	713.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,156.53	1,156.53	1,156.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.58	0.62
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.58	0.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.55	0.60	0.63
WACC / Discount Rate	9.74%	9.74%	9.74%
Growth Rate	4.39%	5.39%	6.39%
Fair Value	$10.70	$14.53	$20.12
Upside / Downside	3.28%	40.23%	94.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	793.57	836.30	881.34	928.80	978.82	1,031.53	1,062.48
Payout Ratio	2.63%	20.10%	37.58%	55.05%	72.53%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	20.86	168.12	331.18	511.32	709.90	928.38	982.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.74%	9.74%	9.74%
Growth Rate	4.39%	5.39%	6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	151.75	153.20	154.65
Year 2 PV (M)	269.81	275.00	280.25
Year 3 PV (M)	375.98	386.89	398.01
Year 4 PV (M)	471.16	489.47	508.32
Year 5 PV (M)	556.14	583.30	611.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,734.42	9,160.89	9,603.86
Equity Value (M)	10,559.26	11,048.76	11,556.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,156.53	1,156.53	1,156.53
Fair Value	$9.13	$9.55	$9.99
Upside / Downside	-11.87%	-7.79%	-3.55%

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Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. (600618.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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