DDM Analysis: 600559.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$77.97 - $139.13	$130.39
Multi-Stage	$22.47 - $24.58	$23.51
Blended Fair Value	$76.95
Current Price	$17.20
Upside	347.37%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	25.44%	34.62%	0.45	0.30	0.16	0.23	0.15	0.15	0.11	0.07	0.06	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	49.44%	95.12%	-32.46%	58.76%	-0.66%	30.84%	57.69%	13.13%	23.72%	117.90%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.48%	1.55%	0.42%	1.15%	0.69%	1.72%	0.76%	0.53%	0.50%	0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	631.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	406.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	224.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	126.23	78.89	47.34
Cash Retained (M)	224.86	224.86	224.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-126.23	-78.89	-47.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	98.63	145.97	177.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	902.15	902.15	902.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.16	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.45	0.45	0.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.16	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.56	0.61	0.65
WACC / Discount Rate	6.26%	6.26%	6.26%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$77.97	$130.39	$139.13
Upside / Downside	353.33%	658.07%	708.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	631.14	672.16	715.86	762.39	811.94	864.72	890.66
Payout Ratio	64.37%	69.50%	74.62%	79.75%	84.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	406.28	467.14	534.19	607.99	689.13	778.25	823.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.26%	6.26%	6.26%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	435.50	439.63	443.76
Year 2 PV (M)	464.29	473.13	482.06
Year 3 PV (M)	492.64	506.78	521.19
Year 4 PV (M)	520.57	540.59	561.18
Year 5 PV (M)	548.07	574.54	602.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	17,812.36	18,672.70	19,565.97
Equity Value (M)	20,273.43	21,207.38	22,176.19
Shares Outstanding (M)	902.15	902.15	902.15
Fair Value	$22.47	$23.51	$24.58
Upside / Downside	30.65%	36.67%	42.92%

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Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. (600559.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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