Definitive Analysis
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China National Medicines Corporation Ltd. (600511.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$217.44 - $530.11$496.79
Multi-Stage$77.09 - $84.39$80.67
Blended Fair Value$288.73
Current Price$28.60
Upside909.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.31%14.64%0.900.940.810.850.810.610.680.340.260.11
YoY Growth---3.83%15.95%-4.05%4.03%33.89%-11.28%99.09%32.95%131.58%-51.62%
Dividend Yield--3.03%2.84%2.18%2.88%2.40%2.15%2.51%1.12%0.77%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,011.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)661.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,349.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)402.22251.39150.83
Cash Retained (M)1,349.961,349.961,349.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-402.22-251.39-150.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)947.731,098.571,199.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)754.49754.49754.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.261.461.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.880.880.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.261.461.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.132.332.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$217.44$496.79$530.11
Upside / Downside660.27%1,637.02%1,753.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,011.122,141.842,281.062,429.332,587.242,755.412,838.07
Payout Ratio32.88%44.30%55.73%67.15%78.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)661.16948.841,271.131,631.302,032.922,479.872,625.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)882.28890.64899.00
Year 2 PV (M)1,099.041,119.971,141.10
Year 3 PV (M)1,311.501,349.151,387.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,519.741,578.181,638.30
Year 5 PV (M)1,723.811,807.071,893.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,627.2554,120.8656,709.91
Equity Value (M)58,163.6260,865.8863,669.35
Shares Outstanding (M)754.49754.49754.49
Fair Value$77.09$80.67$84.39
Upside / Downside169.54%182.07%195.06%

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