DDM Analysis: 600469.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.28 - $7.58	$5.68
Multi-Stage	$7.48 - $8.21	$7.83
Blended Fair Value	$6.76
Current Price	$5.81
Upside	16.29%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.04%	3.92%	0.34	0.10	0.09	0.13	0.04	0.17	0.17	0.24	0.62	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	243.13%	14.16%	-32.24%	225.42%	-77.67%	1.05%	-26.97%	-61.99%	67.84%	61.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.76%	1.67%	1.65%	2.93%	0.71%	3.62%	3.59%	4.85%	5.21%	3.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	228.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	140.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)	87.94

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	45.76	28.60	17.16
Cash Retained (M)	87.94	87.94	87.94
(-) Cash Required (M)	-45.76	-28.60	-17.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	42.19	59.35	70.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	717.53	717.53	717.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.26	0.28	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	0.55%	1.55%	2.55%
Fair Value	$4.28	$5.68	$7.58
Upside / Downside	-26.28%	-2.24%	30.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	228.78	232.33	235.94	239.60	243.31	247.09	254.50
Payout Ratio	61.56%	67.25%	72.94%	78.62%	84.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	140.84	156.24	172.08	188.38	205.14	222.38	235.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	0.55%	1.55%	2.55%
Year 1 PV (M)	145.20	146.65	148.09
Year 2 PV (M)	148.63	151.61	154.61
Year 3 PV (M)	151.22	155.78	160.42
Year 4 PV (M)	153.04	159.22	165.59
Year 5 PV (M)	154.19	162.01	170.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,611.29	4,845.19	5,088.50
Equity Value (M)	5,363.58	5,620.46	5,887.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	717.53	717.53	717.53
Fair Value	$7.48	$7.83	$8.21
Upside / Downside	28.66%	34.82%	41.22%

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Aeolus Tyre Co., Ltd. (600469.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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