DDM Analysis: 600415.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$76.10 - $152.90	$143.29
Multi-Stage	$23.81 - $26.05	$24.91
Blended Fair Value	$84.10
Current Price	$18.55
Upside	353.37%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.69%	7.66%	0.26	0.11	0.12	0.12	0.10	0.14	0.13	0.10	0.09	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	135.70%	-8.76%	0.19%	21.12%	-30.37%	4.94%	28.86%	12.72%	-41.33%	28.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.68%	1.24%	2.06%	2.37%	1.96%	4.27%	2.76%	1.95%	1.17%	2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,202.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,255.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,947.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	840.42	525.26	315.16
Cash Retained (M)	1,947.10	1,947.10	1,947.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-840.42	-525.26	-315.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,106.67	1,421.83	1,631.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,465.75	5,465.75	5,465.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.26	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.41	0.41	0.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.26	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.62	0.67	0.71
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$76.10	$143.29	$152.90
Upside / Downside	310.23%	672.44%	724.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,202.12	4,475.26	4,766.15	5,075.95	5,405.88	5,757.27	5,929.99
Payout Ratio	53.66%	60.93%	68.20%	75.47%	82.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,255.02	2,726.82	3,250.43	3,830.59	4,472.44	5,181.54	5,485.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,539.87	2,563.95	2,588.02
Year 2 PV (M)	2,820.01	2,873.72	2,927.94
Year 3 PV (M)	3,095.49	3,184.35	3,274.89
Year 4 PV (M)	3,366.37	3,495.83	3,628.99
Year 5 PV (M)	3,632.71	3,808.17	3,990.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)	114,702.62	120,242.80	125,995.02
Equity Value (M)	130,157.07	136,168.82	142,405.21
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,465.75	5,465.75	5,465.75
Fair Value	$23.81	$24.91	$26.05
Upside / Downside	28.37%	34.30%	40.45%

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Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co., Ltd. (600415.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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