DDM Analysis: 600369.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.16 - $1.74	$1.44
Multi-Stage	$3.74 - $4.13	$3.93
Blended Fair Value	$2.68
Current Price	$4.75
Upside	-43.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.97%	8.05%	0.14	0.11	0.19	0.23	0.21	0.16	0.17	0.20	0.26	0.17
YoY Growth	-	-	24.76%	-41.92%	-14.69%	8.69%	34.70%	-7.36%	-17.76%	-20.26%	47.21%	167.98%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.23%	2.86%	4.98%	5.22%	4.48%	3.43%	2.98%	4.68%	4.11%	2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	922.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	251.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	670.81

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	184.42	115.27	69.16
Cash Retained (M)	670.81	670.81	670.81
(-) Cash Required (M)	-184.42	-115.27	-69.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	486.39	555.55	601.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,419.31	6,419.31	6,419.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.13	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	5.52%	5.52%	5.52%
Growth Rate	-3.97%	-2.97%	-1.97%
Fair Value	$1.16	$1.44	$1.74
Upside / Downside	-75.52%	-69.76%	-63.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	922.12	894.70	868.09	842.27	817.23	792.92	816.71
Payout Ratio	27.25%	39.80%	52.35%	64.90%	77.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	251.31	356.11	454.46	546.65	632.95	713.63	755.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.52%	5.52%	5.52%
Growth Rate	-3.97%	-2.97%	-1.97%
Year 1 PV (M)	334.02	337.50	340.98
Year 2 PV (M)	399.82	408.19	416.64
Year 3 PV (M)	451.08	465.32	479.85
Year 4 PV (M)	489.88	510.61	531.99
Year 5 PV (M)	518.06	545.60	574.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)	21,795.33	22,954.08	24,161.60
Equity Value (M)	23,988.19	25,221.30	26,505.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,419.31	6,419.31	6,419.31
Fair Value	$3.74	$3.93	$4.13
Upside / Downside	-21.33%	-17.28%	-13.07%

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Southwest Securities Co., Ltd. (600369.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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