DDM Analysis: 600313.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.41 - $0.61	$0.51
Multi-Stage	$0.58 - $0.64	$0.61
Blended Fair Value	$0.56
Current Price	$6.23
Upside	-91.02%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-13.53%	-4.68%	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-36.70%	-0.76%	-21.02%	94.85%	-49.99%	-7.95%	-42.48%	12.19%	-21.25%	173.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.20%	0.27%	0.19%	0.28%	0.26%	0.58%	0.90%	1.37%	0.69%	1.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	53.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)	47.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.70	6.69	4.01
Cash Retained (M)	47.76	47.76	47.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.70	-6.69	-4.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)	37.06	41.07	43.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,057.30	1,057.30	1,057.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	9.36%	9.36%	9.36%
Growth Rate	-0.39%	0.61%	1.61%
Fair Value	$0.41	$0.51	$0.61
Upside / Downside	-93.36%	-91.83%	-90.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	53.50	53.83	54.16	54.49	54.82	55.16	56.81
Payout Ratio	10.74%	26.59%	42.44%	58.29%	74.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.74	14.31	22.99	31.76	40.65	49.64	52.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.36%	9.36%	9.36%
Growth Rate	-0.39%	0.61%	1.61%
Year 1 PV (M)	12.96	13.09	13.22
Year 2 PV (M)	18.84	19.22	19.60
Year 3 PV (M)	23.57	24.29	25.02
Year 4 PV (M)	27.31	28.42	29.57
Year 5 PV (M)	30.19	31.74	33.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)	502.58	528.31	555.10
Equity Value (M)	615.44	645.06	675.85
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,057.30	1,057.30	1,057.30
Fair Value	$0.58	$0.61	$0.64
Upside / Downside	-90.66%	-90.21%	-89.74%

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Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co., Ltd. (600313.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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