Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd. (600276.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.95 - $46.59$31.17
Multi-Stage$16.00 - $17.48$16.73
Blended Fair Value$23.95
Current Price$71.55
Upside-66.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.47%26.40%0.200.160.160.170.160.130.060.050.030.02
YoY Growth--24.63%0.72%-4.76%4.83%25.43%120.20%16.20%61.95%30.02%22.94%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.35%0.37%0.45%0.21%0.20%0.13%0.15%0.18%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,468.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,274.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,193.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,493.62933.52560.11
Cash Retained (M)6,193.996,193.996,193.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,493.62-933.52-560.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,700.375,260.485,633.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,389.226,389.226,389.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.820.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.820.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.95$31.17$46.59
Upside / Downside-69.32%-56.44%-34.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,468.127,953.558,470.539,021.119,607.4910,231.9710,538.93
Payout Ratio17.06%31.65%46.24%60.82%75.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,274.132,517.203,916.485,487.047,245.229,208.789,748.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,266.992,288.482,309.96
Year 2 PV (M)3,176.583,237.093,298.16
Year 3 PV (M)4,008.054,123.114,240.35
Year 4 PV (M)4,766.274,949.575,138.11
Year 5 PV (M)5,455.845,719.365,992.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,573.7386,562.0890,703.06
Equity Value (M)102,247.47106,879.68111,682.60
Shares Outstanding (M)6,389.226,389.226,389.22
Fair Value$16.00$16.73$17.48
Upside / Downside-77.63%-76.62%-75.57%

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