Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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IPS, Inc. (4390.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,336.29 - $3,661.16$2,945.29
Multi-Stage$5,500.47 - $6,068.49$5,778.84
Blended Fair Value$4,362.06
Current Price$3,400.00
Upside28.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%38.4732.8839.839.300.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--17.01%-17.46%328.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.43%1.71%0.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,191.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,066.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)638.20398.88239.33
Cash Retained (M)3,066.003,066.003,066.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-638.20-398.88-239.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,427.802,667.132,826.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.2313.2313.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share183.50201.59213.65
LTM Dividend per Share9.459.459.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share183.50201.59213.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend192.95211.04223.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,336.29$2,945.29$3,661.16
Upside / Downside-31.29%-13.37%7.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,191.003,159.093,127.503,096.223,065.263,034.613,125.65
Payout Ratio3.92%21.13%38.35%55.57%72.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.00667.641,199.411,720.482,231.002,731.152,891.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.09%6.09%6.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)622.93629.29635.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,044.171,065.581,087.22
Year 3 PV (M)1,397.501,440.721,484.82
Year 4 PV (M)1,690.851,760.931,833.16
Year 5 PV (M)1,931.312,031.882,136.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,085.9069,527.1573,110.28
Equity Value (M)72,772.6676,455.5580,287.72
Shares Outstanding (M)13.2313.2313.23
Fair Value$5,500.47$5,778.84$6,068.49
Upside / Downside61.78%69.97%78.48%

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