DDM Analysis: 4263.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$70.49 - $108.69	$88.24
Multi-Stage	$159.26 - $175.22	$167.09
Blended Fair Value	$127.67
Current Price	$187.80
Upside	-32.02%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	6.17	4.40	3.19	1.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	40.23%	38.04%	155.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.18%	1.83%	2.40%	0.94%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	612.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	338.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)	274.16

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	122.57	76.61	45.97
Cash Retained (M)	274.16	274.16	274.16
(-) Cash Required (M)	-122.57	-76.61	-45.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)	151.59	197.55	228.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	80.04	80.04	80.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.89	2.47	2.85
LTM Dividend per Share	4.23	4.23	4.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.89	2.47	2.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.13	6.70	7.08
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$70.49	$88.24	$108.69
Upside / Downside	-62.47%	-53.01%	-42.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	612.87	606.74	600.68	594.67	588.72	582.84	600.32
Payout Ratio	55.27%	62.21%	69.16%	76.11%	83.05%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	338.71	377.47	415.43	452.58	488.95	524.55	555.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	350.80	354.38	357.96
Year 2 PV (M)	358.79	366.15	373.58
Year 3 PV (M)	363.26	374.49	385.96
Year 4 PV (M)	364.72	379.84	395.42
Year 5 PV (M)	363.63	382.56	402.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,946.16	11,516.15	12,109.65
Equity Value (M)	12,747.36	13,373.57	14,024.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	80.04	80.04	80.04
Fair Value	$159.26	$167.09	$175.22
Upside / Downside	-15.19%	-11.03%	-6.70%

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SAL Saudi Logistics Services Co (4263.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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