Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TOKYO BASE Co.,Ltd. (3415.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$235.37 - $374.66$298.70
Multi-Stage$295.69 - $324.66$309.90
Blended Fair Value$304.30
Current Price$487.00
Upside-37.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%4.182.090.000.000.000.000.000.0013.690.00
YoY Growth--100.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.60%0.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.20%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)983.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)982.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.60122.8873.73
Cash Retained (M)982.95982.95982.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.60-122.88-73.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)786.35860.08909.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.8443.8443.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.9419.6220.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.9419.6220.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.9419.6220.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate1.22%2.22%3.22%
Fair Value$235.37$298.70$374.66
Upside / Downside-51.67%-38.67%-23.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)983.001,004.851,027.181,050.011,073.351,097.201,130.12
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.05180.91369.81567.02772.82987.481,045.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate1.22%2.22%3.22%
Year 1 PV (M)164.44166.07167.69
Year 2 PV (M)305.56311.63317.75
Year 3 PV (M)425.86438.61451.61
Year 4 PV (M)527.59548.75570.54
Year 5 PV (M)612.78643.66675.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,926.6411,477.1412,049.61
Equity Value (M)12,962.8813,585.8514,232.97
Shares Outstanding (M)43.8443.8443.84
Fair Value$295.69$309.90$324.66
Upside / Downside-39.28%-36.37%-33.33%

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