Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Asia Optical Co., Inc. (3019.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$149.06 - $377.06$224.59
Multi-Stage$170.39 - $186.68$178.38
Blended Fair Value$201.48
Current Price$158.50
Upside27.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.91%4.97%1.781.883.681.001.992.291.591.001.881.32
YoY Growth---5.26%-48.98%270.00%-50.00%-13.04%43.75%60.00%-46.96%42.28%20.33%
Dividend Yield--1.30%2.90%5.58%1.26%2.23%3.75%1.64%0.97%3.62%4.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,914.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,116.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)797.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)382.80239.25143.55
Cash Retained (M)797.04797.04797.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-382.80-239.25-143.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)414.24557.79653.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.33282.33282.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.471.982.31
LTM Dividend per Share3.963.963.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.471.982.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.425.936.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate2.93%3.93%4.93%
Fair Value$149.06$224.59$377.06
Upside / Downside-5.96%41.69%137.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,914.021,989.262,067.462,148.742,233.212,321.002,390.63
Payout Ratio58.36%64.69%71.01%77.34%83.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,116.981,286.781,468.201,661.901,868.562,088.902,211.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate2.93%3.93%4.93%
Year 1 PV (M)1,194.641,206.241,217.85
Year 2 PV (M)1,265.471,290.181,315.12
Year 3 PV (M)1,329.861,368.991,408.89
Year 4 PV (M)1,388.161,442.901,499.24
Year 5 PV (M)1,440.731,512.091,586.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,486.8543,541.6645,677.10
Equity Value (M)48,105.7150,362.0752,704.45
Shares Outstanding (M)282.33282.33282.33
Fair Value$170.39$178.38$186.68
Upside / Downside7.50%12.54%17.78%

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