DDM Analysis: 301552.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.76 - $30.45	$24.73
Multi-Stage	$44.05 - $48.48	$46.22
Blended Fair Value	$35.48
Current Price	$40.91
Upside	-13.28%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	157.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	68.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)	89.78

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.56	19.72	11.83
Cash Retained (M)	89.78	89.78	89.78
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.56	-19.72	-11.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	58.22	70.05	77.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	73.33	73.33	73.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.79	0.96	1.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.93	0.93	0.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.79	0.96	1.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.72	1.88	1.99
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$19.76	$24.73	$30.45
Upside / Downside	-51.70%	-39.55%	-25.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	157.79	156.22	154.65	153.11	151.58	150.06	154.56
Payout Ratio	43.10%	52.48%	61.86%	71.24%	80.62%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	68.02	81.99	95.67	109.08	122.20	135.06	142.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	76.18	76.96	77.73
Year 2 PV (M)	82.60	84.29	86.00
Year 3 PV (M)	87.50	90.20	92.96
Year 4 PV (M)	91.08	94.86	98.75
Year 5 PV (M)	93.53	98.40	103.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,798.84	2,944.58	3,096.33
Equity Value (M)	3,229.72	3,389.29	3,555.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	73.33	73.33	73.33
Fair Value	$44.05	$46.22	$48.48
Upside / Downside	7.66%	12.98%	18.52%

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Hebei Keli Automobile Equipment Co., Ltd. (301552.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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