Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Haili Wind Power Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. (301155.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.08 - $14.37$12.19
Multi-Stage$15.33 - $16.85$16.07
Blended Fair Value$14.13
Current Price$95.52
Upside-85.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS3.51%0.00%0.100.100.890.100.100.080.060.040.000.00
YoY Growth---0.11%-88.89%781.65%4.10%16.63%34.57%45.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.20%1.05%0.11%0.06%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)325.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)286.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.1940.7524.45
Cash Retained (M)286.57286.57286.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.19-40.75-24.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.38245.83262.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.20219.20219.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.121.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.08$12.19$14.37
Upside / Downside-89.45%-87.24%-84.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)325.96322.70319.47316.28313.12309.99319.28
Payout Ratio12.08%27.67%43.25%58.83%74.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3989.28138.17186.08233.01278.99295.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)80.6681.4882.31
Year 2 PV (M)112.78115.09117.43
Year 3 PV (M)137.21141.46145.79
Year 4 PV (M)155.23161.66168.30
Year 5 PV (M)167.91176.66185.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,705.632,846.522,993.22
Equity Value (M)3,359.433,522.883,692.80
Shares Outstanding (M)219.20219.20219.20
Fair Value$15.33$16.07$16.85
Upside / Downside-83.96%-83.18%-82.36%

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