DDM Analysis: 301138.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$31.73 - $160.30	$56.82
Multi-Stage	$19.96 - $21.86	$20.89
Blended Fair Value	$38.85
Current Price	$35.98
Upside	7.99%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	14.79%	0.00%	0.50	1.00	0.60	0.00	0.21	0.25	0.14	0.36	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.00%	66.67%	0.00%	-100.00%	-16.96%	79.45%	-61.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.74%	3.61%	2.29%	0.00%	0.26%	0.31%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	118.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	106.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	23.61	14.75	8.85
Cash Retained (M)	106.03	106.03	106.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-23.61	-14.75	-8.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	82.43	91.28	97.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	120.00	120.00	120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.76	0.81
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.76	0.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.79	0.86	0.91
WACC / Discount Rate	7.78%	7.78%	7.78%
Growth Rate	5.17%	6.17%	7.17%
Fair Value	$31.73	$56.82	$160.30
Upside / Downside	-11.82%	57.91%	345.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	118.03	125.32	133.05	141.26	149.98	159.24	164.02
Payout Ratio	10.17%	26.13%	42.10%	58.07%	74.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.00	32.75	56.01	82.03	111.04	143.31	151.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.78%	7.78%	7.78%
Growth Rate	5.17%	6.17%	7.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	30.10	30.39	30.67
Year 2 PV (M)	47.32	48.22	49.13
Year 3 PV (M)	63.68	65.52	67.38
Year 4 PV (M)	79.23	82.28	85.43
Year 5 PV (M)	93.98	98.54	103.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,081.41	2,182.26	2,286.99
Equity Value (M)	2,395.72	2,507.20	2,622.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	120.00	120.00	120.00
Fair Value	$19.96	$20.89	$21.86
Upside / Downside	-44.51%	-41.93%	-39.25%

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Guangzhou Huayan Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd. (301138.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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