DDM Analysis: 300837.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.34 - $77.74	$31.66
Multi-Stage	$8.81 - $9.62	$9.21
Blended Fair Value	$20.44
Current Price	$25.24
Upside	-19.03%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2014
DPS	186.59%	19.09%	0.30	0.28	0.28	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	4.25%	0.19%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-90.77%	-39.72%	-34.32%	-21.27%	3.18%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.39%	1.15%	0.61%	0.72%	0.00%	0.01%	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	41.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.27	5.17	3.10
Cash Retained (M)	8.74	8.74	8.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.27	-5.17	-3.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	0.47	3.57	5.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	105.72	105.72	105.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.03	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.31	0.31	0.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.03	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.34	0.36
WACC / Discount Rate	7.65%	7.65%	7.65%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$15.34	$31.66	$77.74
Upside / Downside	-39.21%	25.45%	208.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	41.33	44.01	46.87	49.92	53.16	56.62	58.32
Payout Ratio	78.86%	81.09%	83.32%	85.54%	87.77%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.59	35.69	39.05	42.70	46.66	50.96	53.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.65%	7.65%	7.65%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	32.84	33.15	33.46
Year 2 PV (M)	33.07	33.70	34.33
Year 3 PV (M)	33.28	34.23	35.20
Year 4 PV (M)	33.46	34.75	36.07
Year 5 PV (M)	33.62	35.25	36.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	765.41	802.38	840.76
Equity Value (M)	931.68	973.45	1,016.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	105.72	105.72	105.72
Fair Value	$8.81	$9.21	$9.62
Upside / Downside	-65.08%	-63.52%	-61.90%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Zhe Kuang Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd. (300837.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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