Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd. (300759.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.67 - $169.93$58.92
Multi-Stage$17.30 - $18.93$18.10
Blended Fair Value$38.51
Current Price$35.75
Upside7.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.51%43.25%0.310.250.230.160.080.080.040.030.010.01
YoY Growth--21.91%9.89%42.16%110.27%-5.44%91.96%23.10%320.43%-9.47%6.87%
Dividend Yield--1.14%1.20%0.70%0.31%0.11%0.31%0.22%0.70%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,512.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,382.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)302.49189.06113.43
Cash Retained (M)1,382.781,382.781,382.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-302.49-189.06-113.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,080.291,193.731,269.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,770.081,770.081,770.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.67$58.92$169.93
Upside / Downside-14.21%64.80%375.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,512.461,610.771,715.471,826.981,945.732,072.212,134.37
Payout Ratio8.57%24.86%41.14%57.43%73.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.68400.43705.821,049.231,434.291,864.991,974.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.85%7.85%7.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)367.79371.28374.76
Year 2 PV (M)595.46606.80618.25
Year 3 PV (M)813.02836.36860.14
Year 4 PV (M)1,020.811,060.071,100.45
Year 5 PV (M)1,219.151,278.041,339.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,602.3027,887.2129,221.28
Equity Value (M)30,618.5332,039.7433,514.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,770.081,770.081,770.08
Fair Value$17.30$18.10$18.93
Upside / Downside-51.61%-49.37%-47.04%

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