DDM Analysis: 300722.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.09 - $8.55	$5.78
Multi-Stage	$3.26 - $3.55	$3.40
Blended Fair Value	$4.59
Current Price	$31.46
Upside	-85.41%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.68%	42.63%	0.13	0.10	0.11	0.12	0.10	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.03	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	28.00%	-2.94%	-7.27%	14.40%	0.00%	16.67%	11.21%	198.44%	-62.88%	1,739.34%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.48%	0.54%	0.51%	0.61%	0.40%	1.38%	0.78%	0.70%	0.48%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	61.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	49.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.32	7.70	4.62
Cash Retained (M)	11.80	11.80	11.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.32	-7.70	-4.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.52	4.10	7.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	277.14	277.14	277.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.18	0.19	0.21
WACC / Discount Rate	10.09%	10.09%	10.09%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$4.09	$5.78	$8.55
Upside / Downside	-87.00%	-81.64%	-72.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	61.62	65.62	69.89	74.43	79.27	84.42	86.95
Payout Ratio	80.85%	82.68%	84.51%	86.34%	88.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	49.82	54.26	59.06	64.26	69.89	75.98	80.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.09%	10.09%	10.09%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	48.82	49.28	49.75
Year 2 PV (M)	47.82	48.73	49.65
Year 3 PV (M)	46.82	48.17	49.54
Year 4 PV (M)	45.82	47.59	49.40
Year 5 PV (M)	44.83	46.99	49.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	669.61	701.95	735.53
Equity Value (M)	903.72	942.71	983.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	277.14	277.14	277.14
Fair Value	$3.26	$3.40	$3.55
Upside / Downside	-89.63%	-89.19%	-88.72%

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Jiangxi Xinyu Guoke Technology Co., Ltd (300722.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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