DDM Analysis: 2945.TW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.22 - $29.84	$24.13
Multi-Stage	$45.03 - $49.55	$47.24
Blended Fair Value	$35.69
Current Price	$39.75
Upside	-10.22%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	-11.57%	0.00%	1.19	0.73	2.58	2.41	0.56	2.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	64.38%	-71.85%	6.89%	332.01%	-74.69%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.12%	1.61%	6.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	138.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	81.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	57.47

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.69	17.31	10.39
Cash Retained (M)	57.47	57.47	57.47
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.69	-17.31	-10.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	29.78	40.16	47.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	67.84	67.84	67.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.44	0.59	0.69
LTM Dividend per Share	1.19	1.19	1.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.44	0.59	0.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.63	1.79	1.89
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$19.22	$24.13	$29.84
Upside / Downside	-51.65%	-39.29%	-24.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	138.47	137.09	135.72	134.36	133.01	131.68	135.64
Payout Ratio	58.50%	64.80%	71.10%	77.40%	83.70%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	81.00	88.83	96.49	103.99	111.33	118.52	125.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	82.70	83.54	84.39
Year 2 PV (M)	83.63	85.35	87.08
Year 3 PV (M)	83.92	86.51	89.16
Year 4 PV (M)	83.64	87.11	90.68
Year 5 PV (M)	82.89	87.21	91.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,637.99	2,775.35	2,918.38
Equity Value (M)	3,054.77	3,205.07	3,361.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	67.84	67.84	67.84
Fair Value	$45.03	$47.24	$49.55
Upside / Downside	13.28%	18.85%	24.65%

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Simple Mart Retail Co., Ltd. (2945.TW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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