DDM Analysis: 2630.TW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$47.97 - $200.96	$121.08
Multi-Stage	$24.46 - $26.73	$25.57
Blended Fair Value	$73.33
Current Price	$54.70
Upside	34.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.57%	15.42%	0.53	0.28	0.18	0.09	0.05	0.57	0.72	0.79	0.00	0.50
YoY Growth	-	-	90.27%	54.99%	91.30%	104.75%	-92.00%	-21.37%	-8.60%	0.00%	-100.00%	300.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.47%	0.73%	1.02%	0.59%	0.32%	5.72%	4.16%	3.37%	0.00%	1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	213.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	129.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	83.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	42.65	26.66	15.99
Cash Retained (M)	83.29	83.29	83.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-42.65	-26.66	-15.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	40.64	56.63	67.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	211.05	211.05	211.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.27	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	0.62	0.62	0.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.27	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.81	0.88	0.93
WACC / Discount Rate	7.28%	7.28%	7.28%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$47.97	$121.08	$200.96
Upside / Downside	-12.29%	121.36%	267.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	213.26	227.12	241.89	257.61	274.35	292.19	300.95
Payout Ratio	60.94%	66.75%	72.57%	78.38%	84.19%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	129.97	151.62	175.53	201.91	230.97	262.97	278.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.28%	7.28%	7.28%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	140.00	141.33	142.66
Year 2 PV (M)	149.67	152.52	155.40
Year 3 PV (M)	158.98	163.54	168.19
Year 4 PV (M)	167.93	174.39	181.03
Year 5 PV (M)	176.55	185.08	193.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,369.16	4,580.19	4,799.30
Equity Value (M)	5,162.29	5,397.05	5,640.51
Shares Outstanding (M)	211.05	211.05	211.05
Fair Value	$24.46	$25.57	$26.73
Upside / Downside	-55.28%	-53.25%	-51.14%

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Air Asia Co., Ltd. (2630.TW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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