DDM Analysis: 2273.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.16 - $33.80	$27.61
Multi-Stage	$46.08 - $50.77	$48.38
Blended Fair Value	$37.99
Current Price	$31.33
Upside	21.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.11	0.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-68.52%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.36%	0.80%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	617.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	117.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)	499.88

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	123.49	77.18	46.31
Cash Retained (M)	499.88	499.88	499.88
(-) Cash Required (M)	-123.49	-77.18	-46.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)	376.39	422.70	453.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	247.48	247.48	247.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.52	1.71	1.83
LTM Dividend per Share	0.47	0.47	0.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.52	1.71	1.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.00	2.18	2.31
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$22.16	$27.61	$33.80
Upside / Downside	-29.28%	-11.88%	7.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	617.43	611.25	605.14	599.09	593.10	587.17	604.78
Payout Ratio	19.04%	33.23%	47.42%	61.62%	75.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	117.55	203.12	286.98	369.13	449.61	528.45	559.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	188.22	190.14	192.06
Year 2 PV (M)	246.41	251.46	256.57
Year 3 PV (M)	293.69	302.78	312.04
Year 4 PV (M)	331.48	345.22	359.38
Year 5 PV (M)	361.02	379.82	399.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,983.31	10,503.16	11,044.45
Equity Value (M)	11,404.13	11,972.58	12,563.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	247.48	247.48	247.48
Fair Value	$46.08	$48.38	$50.77
Upside / Downside	47.08%	54.41%	62.04%

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Gushengtang Holdings Limited (2273.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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