DDM Analysis: 2040.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.55 - $8.50	$6.93
Multi-Stage	$12.43 - $13.65	$13.03
Blended Fair Value	$9.98
Current Price	$32.10
Upside	-68.91%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.43	1.07	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54	1.09	1.09
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	-59.93%	66.41%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-50.69%	0.00%	-10.35%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	1.61%	4.26%	1.52%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	4.59%	7.50%	5.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	49.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.55	7.22	4.33
Cash Retained (M)	7.91	7.91	7.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.55	-7.22	-4.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-3.64	0.69	3.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	93.27	93.27	93.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.01	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.53	0.53	0.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.01	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.54	0.57
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$5.55	$6.93	$8.50
Upside / Downside	-82.69%	-78.41%	-73.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57.75	57.17	56.60	56.03	55.47	54.92	56.56
Payout Ratio	86.31%	87.05%	87.79%	88.52%	89.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	49.84	49.76	49.68	49.60	49.51	49.42	52.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	46.15	46.62	47.09
Year 2 PV (M)	42.73	43.61	44.49
Year 3 PV (M)	39.56	40.79	42.04
Year 4 PV (M)	36.63	38.15	39.71
Year 5 PV (M)	33.91	35.67	37.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	960.26	1,010.27	1,062.33
Equity Value (M)	1,159.25	1,215.11	1,273.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	93.27	93.27	93.27
Fair Value	$12.43	$13.03	$13.65
Upside / Downside	-61.28%	-59.42%	-57.48%

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Saudi Ceramic Company (2040.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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