Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hanjin Kal (180640.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48,879.23 - $70,369.87$59,360.42
Multi-Stage$44,662.80 - $48,727.48$46,658.50
Blended Fair Value$53,009.46
Current Price$118,200.00
Upside-55.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.69%17.47%353.63224.2535.6335.63227.90268.09111.8285.65158.31132.10
YoY Growth--57.70%529.32%0.00%-84.36%-14.99%139.75%30.56%-45.90%19.84%86.89%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.36%0.08%0.06%0.40%0.36%0.44%0.41%0.81%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)434,392.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24,080.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)410,312.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86,878.4854,299.0532,579.43
Cash Retained (M)410,312.23410,312.23410,312.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-86,878.48-54,299.05-32,579.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)323,433.75356,013.18377,732.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.8666.8666.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share4,837.685,324.975,649.84
LTM Dividend per Share360.17360.17360.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share4,837.685,324.975,649.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend5,197.855,685.156,010.01
WACC / Discount Rate14.72%14.72%14.72%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Fair Value$48,879.23$59,360.42$70,369.87
Upside / Downside-58.65%-49.78%-40.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)434,392.40454,786.91476,138.94498,493.44521,897.47546,400.31562,792.32
Payout Ratio5.54%22.43%39.33%56.22%73.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24,080.17102,030.22187,246.63280,239.88381,552.37491,760.28520,582.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate14.72%14.72%14.72%
Growth Rate3.69%4.69%5.69%
Year 1 PV (M)88,087.4988,936.9789,786.46
Year 2 PV (M)139,567.65142,272.52145,003.35
Year 3 PV (M)180,337.52185,605.34190,974.76
Year 4 PV (M)211,980.39220,276.51228,813.80
Year 5 PV (M)235,874.16247,469.11259,515.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,130,184.582,234,898.862,343,691.21
Equity Value (M)2,986,031.793,119,459.323,257,785.21
Shares Outstanding (M)66.8666.8666.86
Fair Value$44,662.80$46,658.50$48,727.48
Upside / Downside-62.21%-60.53%-58.78%

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