DDM Analysis: 1748.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.54 - $0.83	$0.67
Multi-Stage	$1.22 - $1.34	$1.28
Blended Fair Value	$0.97
Current Price	$0.52
Upside	88.95%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.71%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	25.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	16.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)	9.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.11	3.20	1.92
Cash Retained (M)	9.54	9.54	9.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.11	-3.20	-1.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4.42	6.34	7.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	440.00	440.00	440.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.05	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.54	$0.67	$0.83
Upside / Downside	3.81%	29.98%	60.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	25.56	25.31	25.05	24.80	24.55	24.31	25.04
Payout Ratio	62.70%	68.16%	73.62%	79.08%	84.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	16.03	17.25	18.44	19.61	20.76	21.88	23.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	16.03	16.19	16.36
Year 2 PV (M)	15.93	16.26	16.59
Year 3 PV (M)	15.75	16.23	16.73
Year 4 PV (M)	15.49	16.13	16.79
Year 5 PV (M)	15.17	15.96	16.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	457.94	481.79	506.62
Equity Value (M)	536.32	562.57	589.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	440.00	440.00	440.00
Fair Value	$1.22	$1.28	$1.34
Upside / Downside	136.35%	147.92%	159.95%

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Xin Yuan Enterprises Group Limited (1748.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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