DDM Analysis: 1717.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.76 - $2.78	$2.23
Multi-Stage	$3.90 - $4.30	$4.10
Blended Fair Value	$3.16
Current Price	$1.87
Upside	69.06%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-17.26%	0.39%	0.05	0.06	0.24	0.22	0.18	0.12	0.06	0.03	0.02	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-18.10%	-77.11%	10.82%	20.39%	55.09%	94.44%	98.52%	60.36%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.57%	2.34%	6.52%	2.83%	1.65%	1.16%	0.78%	0.78%	0.68%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	315.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	81.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	234.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	63.20	39.50	23.70
Cash Retained (M)	234.67	234.67	234.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-63.20	-39.50	-23.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)	171.47	195.17	210.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,783.27	1,783.27	1,783.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.16	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	-1.61%	-0.61%	0.39%
Fair Value	$1.76	$2.23	$2.78
Upside / Downside	-5.88%	19.02%	48.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	315.99	314.05	312.12	310.20	308.30	306.41	315.60
Payout Ratio	25.74%	38.59%	51.44%	64.29%	77.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	81.32	121.19	160.56	199.44	237.84	275.77	291.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	-1.61%	-0.61%	0.39%
Year 1 PV (M)	112.85	113.99	115.14
Year 2 PV (M)	139.22	142.06	144.94
Year 3 PV (M)	161.04	166.00	171.06
Year 4 PV (M)	178.83	186.21	193.82
Year 5 PV (M)	193.07	203.08	213.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,175.13	6,495.39	6,828.81
Equity Value (M)	6,960.13	7,306.74	7,667.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,783.27	1,783.27	1,783.27
Fair Value	$3.90	$4.10	$4.30
Upside / Downside	108.72%	119.11%	129.92%

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Ausnutria Dairy Corporation Ltd (1717.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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