DDM Analysis: 0306.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$52.65 - $62.11	$58.17
Multi-Stage	$35.70 - $39.44	$37.53
Blended Fair Value	$47.85
Current Price	$1.58
Upside	2,928.60%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-13.04%	-32.16%	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.19	0.23	0.23	0.41
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-79.23%	-16.67%	0.00%	-42.86%	-58.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.27%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.52%	4.48%	5.37%	5.74%	9.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	159.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	9.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)	149.68

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.84	19.90	11.94
Cash Retained (M)	149.68	149.68	149.68
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.84	-19.90	-11.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	117.84	129.78	137.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	476.78	476.78	476.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.27	0.29
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.27	0.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.29	0.31
WACC / Discount Rate	-3.16%	-3.16%	-3.16%
Growth Rate	-1.46%	-0.46%	0.54%
Fair Value	$52.65	$58.17	$62.11
Upside / Downside	3,232.23%	3,581.61%	3,831.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	159.22	158.48	157.74	157.01	156.28	155.55	160.22
Payout Ratio	5.99%	22.79%	39.59%	56.40%	73.20%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	9.54	36.12	62.46	88.55	114.39	140.00	148.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-3.16%	-3.16%	-3.16%
Growth Rate	-1.46%	-0.46%	0.54%
Year 1 PV (M)	36.92	37.30	37.67
Year 2 PV (M)	65.26	66.60	67.94
Year 3 PV (M)	94.59	97.49	100.46
Year 4 PV (M)	124.91	130.06	135.37
Year 5 PV (M)	156.27	164.36	172.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	16,543.06	17,399.72	18,291.51
Equity Value (M)	17,021.02	17,895.54	18,805.74
Shares Outstanding (M)	476.78	476.78	476.78
Fair Value	$35.70	$37.53	$39.44
Upside / Downside	2,159.51%	2,275.60%	2,396.42%

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Kwoon Chung Bus Holdings Limited (0306.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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