DDM Analysis: 0133.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.07 - $22.59	$17.92
Multi-Stage	$24.43 - $26.88	$25.63
Blended Fair Value	$21.78
Current Price	$1.88
Upside	1,058.49%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.38%	7.18%	0.12	0.07	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	71.43%	-50.00%	75.00%	14.29%	0.00%	-36.36%	83.33%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.63%	7.14%	13.33%	6.67%	5.83%	5.34%	9.09%	3.61%	4.03%	3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	202.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	28.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	173.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	40.57	25.36	15.21
Cash Retained (M)	173.90	173.90	173.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-40.57	-25.36	-15.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	133.33	148.55	158.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	152.33	152.33	152.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	0.98	1.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	0.98	1.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.07	1.17	1.23
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	-0.41%	0.59%	1.59%
Fair Value	$14.07	$17.92	$22.59
Upside / Downside	648.56%	853.44%	1,101.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	202.85	204.04	205.24	206.45	207.67	208.89	215.15
Payout Ratio	14.27%	29.41%	44.56%	59.71%	74.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	28.94	60.02	91.46	123.27	155.45	188.00	199.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%	7.13%	7.13%
Growth Rate	-0.41%	0.59%	1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.47	56.03	56.58
Year 2 PV (M)	78.12	79.69	81.29
Year 3 PV (M)	97.30	100.26	103.28
Year 4 PV (M)	113.40	118.03	122.79
Year 5 PV (M)	126.75	133.25	140.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,251.18	3,417.72	3,591.02
Equity Value (M)	3,722.22	3,904.98	4,094.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	152.33	152.33	152.33
Fair Value	$24.43	$25.63	$26.88
Upside / Downside	1,199.72%	1,263.54%	1,329.88%

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China Merchants China Direct Investments Limited (0133.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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