DDM Analysis: 002968.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.73 - $18.26	$12.34
Multi-Stage	$12.64 - $13.86	$13.24
Blended Fair Value	$12.79
Current Price	$11.67
Upside	9.57%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.84%	0.00%	0.29	0.31	0.36	0.26	0.20	0.24	0.19	0.13	0.39	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.83%	-15.31%	37.62%	33.06%	-17.33%	27.88%	40.05%	-65.92%	541.99%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.10%	3.04%	1.60%	1.02%	0.60%	1.17%	1.53%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	110.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	65.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	45.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	22.12	13.82	8.29
Cash Retained (M)	45.03	45.03	45.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-22.12	-13.82	-8.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	22.91	31.21	36.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	224.99	224.99	224.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.14	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.29	0.29	0.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.14	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.39	0.43	0.45
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	1.84%	2.84%	3.84%
Fair Value	$8.73	$12.34	$18.26
Upside / Downside	-25.16%	5.72%	56.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	110.59	113.73	116.96	120.28	123.70	127.21	131.03
Payout Ratio	59.28%	65.43%	71.57%	77.71%	83.86%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	65.56	74.41	83.71	93.48	103.73	114.49	121.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	1.84%	2.84%	3.84%
Year 1 PV (M)	69.24	69.92	70.60
Year 2 PV (M)	72.48	73.91	75.35
Year 3 PV (M)	75.31	77.55	79.83
Year 4 PV (M)	77.76	80.86	84.05
Year 5 PV (M)	79.86	83.86	88.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,468.52	2,592.13	2,720.63
Equity Value (M)	2,843.17	2,978.22	3,118.48
Shares Outstanding (M)	224.99	224.99	224.99
Fair Value	$12.64	$13.24	$13.86
Upside / Downside	8.28%	13.43%	18.77%

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New Dazheng Property Group Co., Ltd. (002968.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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