DDM Analysis: 002939.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$36.73 - $118.84	$111.37
Multi-Stage	$15.78 - $17.26	$16.51
Blended Fair Value	$63.94
Current Price	$11.61
Upside	450.72%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.17%	45.13%	0.41	0.31	0.35	0.29	0.24	0.25	0.08	0.13	0.26	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	31.65%	-11.00%	23.49%	19.97%	-6.52%	210.16%	-34.61%	-52.04%	706.95%	225.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.12%	4.15%	4.25%	3.00%	2.18%	2.10%	0.53%	1.38%	2.88%	0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,412.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	953.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,458.37

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	482.46	301.54	180.92
Cash Retained (M)	1,458.37	1,458.37	1,458.37
(-) Cash Required (M)	-482.46	-301.54	-180.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	975.91	1,156.83	1,277.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,036.89	4,036.89	4,036.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.29	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	0.24	0.24	0.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.29	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.48	0.52	0.55
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$36.73	$111.37	$118.84
Upside / Downside	216.32%	859.27%	923.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,412.31	2,569.10	2,736.10	2,913.94	3,103.35	3,305.07	3,404.22
Payout Ratio	39.54%	49.64%	59.73%	69.82%	79.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	953.94	1,275.19	1,634.18	2,034.45	2,479.85	2,974.56	3,148.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,181.98	1,193.18	1,204.39
Year 2 PV (M)	1,404.00	1,430.74	1,457.74
Year 3 PV (M)	1,620.12	1,666.63	1,714.02
Year 4 PV (M)	1,830.46	1,900.86	1,973.26
Year 5 PV (M)	2,035.12	2,133.42	2,235.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	55,621.94	58,308.50	61,097.88
Equity Value (M)	63,693.63	66,633.33	69,682.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,036.89	4,036.89	4,036.89
Fair Value	$15.78	$16.51	$17.26
Upside / Downside	35.90%	42.17%	48.68%

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China Great Wall Securities Co.,Ltd. (002939.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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