DDM Analysis: 002907.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.83 - $35.08	$32.88
Multi-Stage	$7.94 - $8.70	$8.31
Blended Fair Value	$20.59
Current Price	$16.32
Upside	26.18%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.05%	21.14%	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	17.67%	30.92%	71.96%	-30.84%	30.56%	-49.89%	2,594.63%	-55.83%	-29.36%	-32.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.64%	0.51%	0.31%	0.20%	0.37%	0.19%	0.30%	0.01%	0.09%	0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	74.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	56.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.92	9.33	5.60
Cash Retained (M)	18.23	18.23	18.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.92	-9.33	-5.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.31	8.91	12.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	417.68	417.68	417.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	5.24%	5.24%	5.24%
Growth Rate	4.17%	5.17%	6.17%
Fair Value	$13.83	$32.88	$35.08
Upside / Downside	-15.27%	101.44%	114.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	74.61	78.46	82.52	86.78	91.27	95.98	98.86
Payout Ratio	75.56%	78.45%	81.34%	84.22%	87.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	56.38	61.55	67.12	73.09	79.50	86.38	91.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.24%	5.24%	5.24%
Growth Rate	4.17%	5.17%	6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	57.93	58.49	59.04
Year 2 PV (M)	59.45	60.60	61.75
Year 3 PV (M)	60.93	62.70	64.51
Year 4 PV (M)	62.37	64.80	67.31
Year 5 PV (M)	63.78	66.90	70.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,009.91	3,157.18	3,310.17
Equity Value (M)	3,314.38	3,470.68	3,632.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	417.68	417.68	417.68
Fair Value	$7.94	$8.31	$8.70
Upside / Downside	-51.38%	-49.08%	-46.70%

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Chongqing Pharscin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002907.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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