DDM Analysis: 002709.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.93 - $57.65	$54.03
Multi-Stage	$10.53 - $11.53	$11.02
Blended Fair Value	$32.52
Current Price	$38.17
Upside	-14.79%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	50.82%	43.58%	0.34	0.63	0.26	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-44.96%	137.47%	250.46%	97.09%	-13.57%	2.22%	16.14%	192.58%	19.18%	15.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.85%	2.70%	0.63%	0.16%	0.16%	0.77%	0.73%	0.43%	0.14%	0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	566.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	250.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)	315.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	113.25	70.78	42.47
Cash Retained (M)	315.52	315.52	315.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-113.25	-70.78	-42.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)	202.27	244.74	273.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,953.39	1,953.39	1,953.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.13	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.13	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.27
WACC / Discount Rate	5.86%	5.86%	5.86%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$48.93	$54.03	$57.65
Upside / Downside	28.19%	41.54%	51.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	566.24	603.05	642.24	683.99	728.45	775.80	799.07
Payout Ratio	44.28%	53.42%	62.57%	71.71%	80.86%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	250.72	322.16	401.83	490.50	588.99	698.22	739.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.86%	5.86%	5.86%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	301.48	304.34	307.19
Year 2 PV (M)	351.89	358.59	365.36
Year 3 PV (M)	401.96	413.50	425.25
Year 4 PV (M)	451.68	469.05	486.92
Year 5 PV (M)	501.06	525.27	550.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,561.44	19,457.96	20,388.80
Equity Value (M)	20,569.51	21,528.70	22,523.92
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,953.39	1,953.39	1,953.39
Fair Value	$10.53	$11.02	$11.53
Upside / Downside	-72.41%	-71.13%	-69.79%

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Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (002709.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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