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Western Securities Co., Ltd. (002673.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.46 - $85.44$80.07
Multi-Stage$11.45 - $12.52$11.97
Blended Fair Value$46.02
Current Price$8.58
Upside436.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.91%27.84%0.250.170.210.140.080.080.120.170.270.09
YoY Growth--45.28%-18.33%50.93%65.69%10.97%-34.25%-33.72%-34.50%200.89%312.24%
Dividend Yield--3.20%2.45%3.30%1.93%0.95%0.92%0.99%1.79%1.66%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,917.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)975.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)942.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)383.60239.75143.85
Cash Retained (M)942.79942.79942.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-383.60-239.75-143.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)559.19703.04798.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,464.344,464.344,464.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.46$80.07$85.44
Upside / Downside208.37%833.22%895.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,917.982,042.642,175.422,316.822,467.412,627.792,706.63
Payout Ratio50.84%58.68%66.51%74.34%82.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)975.191,198.531,446.801,722.272,027.442,365.012,503.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,110.951,121.481,132.01
Year 2 PV (M)1,243.081,266.751,290.65
Year 3 PV (M)1,371.631,411.011,451.13
Year 4 PV (M)1,496.681,554.241,613.44
Year 5 PV (M)1,618.301,696.471,777.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,262.1446,400.0248,619.72
Equity Value (M)51,102.7853,449.9755,884.58
Shares Outstanding (M)4,464.344,464.344,464.34
Fair Value$11.45$11.97$12.52
Upside / Downside33.41%39.54%45.90%

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