DDM Analysis: 002568.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$57.68 - $134.03	$125.60
Multi-Stage	$19.95 - $21.83	$20.88
Blended Fair Value	$73.24
Current Price	$25.78
Upside	184.09%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-73.81%	-45.37%	0.00	0.51	0.37	0.26	0.30	0.20	0.06	0.01	0.03	0.43
YoY Growth	-	-	-99.95%	35.83%	43.49%	-14.09%	50.00%	232.68%	508.56%	-62.01%	-93.98%	314.81%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	2.58%	0.91%	1.01%	0.54%	1.16%	0.73%	0.13%	0.24%	3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	694.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	322.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)	372.03

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	138.83	86.77	52.06
Cash Retained (M)	372.03	372.03	372.03
(-) Cash Required (M)	-138.83	-86.77	-52.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)	233.20	285.26	319.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,030.03	1,030.03	1,030.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.28	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.31	0.31	0.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.28	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.54	0.59	0.62
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$57.68	$125.60	$134.03
Upside / Downside	123.74%	387.21%	419.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	694.16	739.28	787.33	838.50	893.01	951.05	979.58
Payout Ratio	46.41%	55.12%	63.84%	72.56%	81.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	322.12	407.52	502.66	608.44	725.85	855.95	906.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	379.10	382.70	386.29
Year 2 PV (M)	435.00	443.29	451.65
Year 3 PV (M)	489.83	503.89	518.22
Year 4 PV (M)	543.61	564.51	586.01
Year 5 PV (M)	596.34	625.15	655.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	18,108.97	18,983.64	19,891.79
Equity Value (M)	20,552.86	21,503.18	22,489.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,030.03	1,030.03	1,030.03
Fair Value	$19.95	$20.88	$21.83
Upside / Downside	-22.60%	-19.02%	-15.31%

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Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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