DDM Analysis: 002541.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$68.55 - $177.23	$166.09
Multi-Stage	$25.66 - $28.07	$26.84
Blended Fair Value	$96.47
Current Price	$19.14
Upside	404.02%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	40.41%	42.91%	0.97	0.26	0.25	0.33	0.25	0.18	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	271.47%	2.42%	-21.98%	31.12%	40.20%	438.16%	30.00%	-6.95%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.81%	1.59%	0.77%	1.00%	0.66%	1.54%	0.46%	0.36%	0.29%	0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	613.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	327.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)	285.69

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	122.61	76.63	45.98
Cash Retained (M)	285.69	285.69	285.69
(-) Cash Required (M)	-122.61	-76.63	-45.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	163.08	209.06	239.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	687.91	687.91	687.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.30	0.35
LTM Dividend per Share	0.48	0.48	0.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.30	0.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.71	0.78	0.82
WACC / Discount Rate	6.60%	6.60%	6.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$68.55	$166.09	$177.23
Upside / Downside	258.13%	767.79%	825.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	613.05	652.90	695.34	740.54	788.67	839.94	865.13
Payout Ratio	53.40%	60.72%	68.04%	75.36%	82.68%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	327.36	396.44	473.11	558.07	652.07	755.94	800.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.60%	6.60%	6.60%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	368.41	371.90	375.39
Year 2 PV (M)	408.57	416.36	424.21
Year 3 PV (M)	447.87	460.73	473.83
Year 4 PV (M)	486.32	505.02	524.26
Year 5 PV (M)	523.93	549.23	575.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	15,418.17	16,162.88	16,936.08
Equity Value (M)	17,653.28	18,466.12	19,309.29
Shares Outstanding (M)	687.91	687.91	687.91
Fair Value	$25.66	$26.84	$28.07
Upside / Downside	34.08%	40.25%	46.65%

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Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co. Ltd. (002541.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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