DDM Analysis: 002510.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.32 - $10.99	$10.29
Multi-Stage	$6.42 - $7.06	$6.73
Blended Fair Value	$8.51
Current Price	$7.40
Upside	15.04%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.48%	4.28%	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.07	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	108.34%	71.91%	-22.75%	-63.49%	-32.90%	43.59%	41.80%	-6.10%	3.44%	13.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.39%	0.80%	0.54%	0.72%	1.84%	2.20%	1.52%	0.92%	0.94%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	56.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	35.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.38	7.11	4.27
Cash Retained (M)	21.40	21.40	21.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.38	-7.11	-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	10.02	14.29	17.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	999.55	999.55	999.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.05	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.33%	-0.33%	-0.33%
Growth Rate	2.28%	3.28%	4.28%
Fair Value	$9.32	$10.29	$10.99
Upside / Downside	25.93%	39.08%	48.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	56.92	58.79	60.72	62.71	64.77	66.90	68.91
Payout Ratio	62.40%	67.92%	73.44%	78.96%	84.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	35.52	39.93	44.59	49.52	54.72	60.21	63.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.33%	-0.33%	-0.33%
Growth Rate	2.28%	3.28%	4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)	39.67	40.06	40.45
Year 2 PV (M)	44.02	44.89	45.76
Year 3 PV (M)	48.57	50.01	51.48
Year 4 PV (M)	53.33	55.45	57.62
Year 5 PV (M)	58.30	61.21	64.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,172.06	6,479.72	6,799.54
Equity Value (M)	6,415.95	6,731.33	7,059.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	999.55	999.55	999.55
Fair Value	$6.42	$6.73	$7.06
Upside / Downside	-13.26%	-8.99%	-4.56%

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Tianjin Motor Dies Co.,Ltd. (002510.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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