DDM Analysis: 002478.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.42 - $30.53	$19.53
Multi-Stage	$17.90 - $19.65	$18.76
Blended Fair Value	$19.14
Current Price	$5.71
Upside	235.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.15%	10.35%	0.28	0.18	0.08	0.10	0.15	0.14	0.11	0.45	0.09	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	56.04%	126.96%	-18.94%	-33.08%	5.39%	24.67%	-74.81%	400.02%	0.47%	-16.18%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.94%	2.77%	1.42%	2.17%	3.54%	2.76%	1.71%	8.87%	1.07%	1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	615.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	200.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	414.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	123.06	76.91	46.15
Cash Retained (M)	414.83	414.83	414.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-123.06	-76.91	-46.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	291.77	337.91	368.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	902.35	902.35	902.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.37	0.41
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.37	0.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.55	0.60	0.63
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	2.20%	3.20%	4.20%
Fair Value	$13.42	$19.53	$30.53
Upside / Downside	135.10%	242.02%	434.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	615.31	634.97	655.27	676.21	697.82	720.12	741.72
Payout Ratio	32.58%	44.07%	55.55%	67.03%	78.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	200.48	279.81	364.00	453.28	547.90	648.11	686.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	2.20%	3.20%	4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)	260.55	263.10	265.65
Year 2 PV (M)	315.63	321.84	328.10
Year 3 PV (M)	366.00	376.85	387.92
Year 4 PV (M)	411.96	428.33	445.17
Year 5 PV (M)	453.78	476.42	499.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,345.12	15,060.84	15,804.84
Equity Value (M)	16,153.05	16,927.37	17,731.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	902.35	902.35	902.35
Fair Value	$17.90	$18.76	$19.65
Upside / Downside	213.50%	228.53%	244.14%

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Jiangsu Changbao Steeltube Co.,Ltd (002478.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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