DDM Analysis: 002389.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.81 - $1.22	$1.00
Multi-Stage	$1.07 - $1.16	$1.11
Blended Fair Value	$1.06
Current Price	$23.11
Upside	-95.42%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.59%	3.20%	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.80%	-6.61%	68.10%	-0.35%	-10.42%	14.01%	483.37%	-64.39%	-32.33%	-37.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.33%	0.40%	0.32%	0.23%	0.21%	0.43%	0.29%	0.04%	0.09%	0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	88.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	67.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.61	11.01	6.61
Cash Retained (M)	20.60	20.60	20.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.61	-11.01	-6.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2.98	9.59	13.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	981.20	981.20	981.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.08	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	10.22%	10.22%	10.22%
Growth Rate	1.20%	2.20%	3.20%
Fair Value	$0.81	$1.00	$1.22
Upside / Downside	-96.51%	-95.67%	-94.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	88.07	90.01	91.99	94.01	96.07	98.18	101.13
Payout Ratio	76.61%	79.29%	81.97%	84.64%	87.32%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	67.47	71.37	75.40	79.57	83.89	88.37	93.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.22%	10.22%	10.22%
Growth Rate	1.20%	2.20%	3.20%
Year 1 PV (M)	64.12	64.75	65.38
Year 2 PV (M)	60.86	62.07	63.29
Year 3 PV (M)	57.70	59.43	61.19
Year 4 PV (M)	54.65	56.85	59.10
Year 5 PV (M)	51.72	54.32	57.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	758.37	796.59	836.33
Equity Value (M)	1,047.41	1,094.00	1,142.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	981.20	981.20	981.20
Fair Value	$1.07	$1.11	$1.16
Upside / Downside	-95.38%	-95.18%	-94.96%

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Aerospace CH UAV Co.,Ltd (002389.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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