Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianshui Huatian Technology Co., Ltd. (002185.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.32 - $49.58$22.37
Multi-Stage$5.64 - $6.16$5.90
Blended Fair Value$14.13
Current Price$11.78
Upside19.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.70%20.46%0.120.140.130.090.010.060.040.020.020.02
YoY Growth---10.83%3.54%41.99%623.72%-79.97%73.74%62.02%7.19%-14.18%30.74%
Dividend Yield--1.14%1.69%1.30%0.88%0.11%0.65%0.69%0.33%0.36%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)801.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)428.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)373.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.37100.2360.14
Cash Retained (M)373.18373.18373.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.37-100.23-60.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)212.81272.95313.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,216.443,216.443,216.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.32$22.37$49.58
Upside / Downside-12.38%89.89%320.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)801.85853.97909.47968.591,031.551,098.601,131.56
Payout Ratio53.46%60.77%68.08%75.38%82.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)428.66518.94619.13730.16853.01988.741,046.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)478.03482.56487.09
Year 2 PV (M)525.36535.37545.47
Year 3 PV (M)570.74587.12603.81
Year 4 PV (M)614.20637.82662.11
Year 5 PV (M)655.81687.48720.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,296.6316,035.4616,802.57
Equity Value (M)18,140.7618,965.8119,821.43
Shares Outstanding (M)3,216.443,216.443,216.44
Fair Value$5.64$5.90$6.16
Upside / Downside-52.12%-49.94%-47.69%

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