DDM Analysis: 002051.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.40 - $10.18	$6.44
Multi-Stage	$18.67 - $20.66	$19.65
Blended Fair Value	$13.05
Current Price	$8.28
Upside	57.56%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.01%	-1.47%	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.02	0.17	0.32	0.38	0.28	0.20	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	11.62%	28.44%	585.61%	-89.85%	-47.13%	-14.78%	36.66%	39.05%	-9.05%	11.04%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.12%	2.01%	1.12%	0.20%	2.31%	3.92%	2.39%	1.72%	0.85%	1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	284.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	53.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	231.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	56.95	35.59	21.36
Cash Retained (M)	231.36	231.36	231.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-56.95	-35.59	-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)	174.41	195.77	210.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,221.66	1,221.66	1,221.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.20	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	0.62%	0.62%	0.62%
Growth Rate	-3.47%	-2.47%	-1.47%
Fair Value	$4.40	$6.44	$10.18
Upside / Downside	-46.80%	-22.17%	22.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	284.74	277.71	270.86	264.18	257.66	251.30	258.84
Payout Ratio	18.75%	33.00%	47.25%	61.50%	75.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	53.38	91.64	127.98	162.47	195.17	226.17	239.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	0.62%	0.62%	0.62%
Growth Rate	-3.47%	-2.47%	-1.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	90.14	91.07	92.01
Year 2 PV (M)	123.83	126.41	129.01
Year 3 PV (M)	154.63	159.49	164.44
Year 4 PV (M)	182.73	190.42	198.35
Year 5 PV (M)	208.28	219.30	230.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	22,049.24	23,215.21	24,429.99
Equity Value (M)	22,808.85	24,001.89	25,244.57
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,221.66	1,221.66	1,221.66
Fair Value	$18.67	$19.65	$20.66
Upside / Downside	125.49%	137.28%	149.57%

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China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd. (002051.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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