DDM Analysis: 001914.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.33 - $39.26	$25.18
Multi-Stage	$12.12 - $13.26	$12.68
Blended Fair Value	$18.93
Current Price	$12.20
Upside	55.16%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.96%	-12.27%	0.26	0.20	0.21	0.24	0.28	0.39	0.46	0.55	0.71	0.98
YoY Growth	-	-	26.90%	-3.31%	-14.12%	-11.68%	-29.03%	-14.71%	-17.49%	-21.65%	-27.97%	2.93%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.16%	1.97%	1.38%	1.39%	1.40%	1.65%	5.09%	6.08%	5.82%	10.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	906.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	883.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	181.37	113.36	68.02
Cash Retained (M)	883.90	883.90	883.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-181.37	-113.36	-68.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	702.53	770.54	815.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,059.45	1,059.45	1,059.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.66	0.73	0.77
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.66	0.73	0.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.68	0.75	0.79
WACC / Discount Rate	9.67%	9.67%	9.67%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$17.33	$25.18	$39.26
Upside / Downside	42.07%	106.37%	221.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	906.87	965.81	1,028.59	1,095.45	1,166.66	1,242.49	1,279.76
Payout Ratio	2.53%	20.03%	37.52%	55.01%	72.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.97	193.41	385.92	602.64	845.90	1,118.24	1,183.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.67%	9.67%	9.67%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	174.71	176.36	178.02
Year 2 PV (M)	314.88	320.88	326.93
Year 3 PV (M)	444.15	456.90	469.89
Year 4 PV (M)	563.13	584.79	607.06
Year 5 PV (M)	672.43	704.91	738.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,675.22	11,190.83	11,726.18
Equity Value (M)	12,844.51	13,434.66	14,046.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,059.45	1,059.45	1,059.45
Fair Value	$12.12	$12.68	$13.26
Upside / Downside	-0.63%	3.94%	8.68%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co., Ltd. (001914.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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