DDM Analysis: 001395.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.80 - $33.59	$27.28
Multi-Stage	$48.05 - $52.92	$50.44
Blended Fair Value	$38.86
Current Price	$49.39
Upside	-21.32%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.79	0.01	0.16	2.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-99.46%	6,011.29%	-91.74%	-93.34%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.01%	1.59%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	168.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	50.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)	117.88

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	33.65	21.03	12.62
Cash Retained (M)	117.88	117.88	117.88
(-) Cash Required (M)	-33.65	-21.03	-12.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)	84.23	96.85	105.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	70.86	70.86	70.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.19	1.37	1.49
LTM Dividend per Share	0.71	0.71	0.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.19	1.37	1.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.90	2.08	2.20
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$21.80	$27.28	$33.59
Upside / Downside	-55.86%	-44.76%	-32.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	168.24	166.56	164.90	163.25	161.61	160.00	164.80
Payout Ratio	29.94%	41.95%	53.96%	65.97%	77.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	50.37	69.87	88.98	107.70	126.04	144.00	152.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	64.92	65.58	66.25
Year 2 PV (M)	76.82	78.39	79.99
Year 3 PV (M)	86.39	89.06	91.79
Year 4 PV (M)	93.94	97.83	101.84
Year 5 PV (M)	99.72	104.91	110.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,982.75	3,138.07	3,299.79
Equity Value (M)	3,404.53	3,573.84	3,749.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	70.86	70.86	70.86
Fair Value	$48.05	$50.44	$52.92
Upside / Downside	-2.72%	2.12%	7.15%

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Yalian Machinery Co Ltd (001395.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener