DDM Analysis: 001318.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.89 - $6.04	$4.88
Multi-Stage	$9.03 - $9.95	$9.48
Blended Fair Value	$7.18
Current Price	$13.76
Upside	-47.80%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
DPS	-21.47%	0.00%	0.16	0.15	0.00	0.54	0.34	0.54	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	6.67%	3,211.61%	-99.17%	58.56%	-36.07%	70.98%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.21%	1.25%	0.03%	3.98%	2.51%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	116.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	50.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	65.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	23.30	14.56	8.74
Cash Retained (M)	65.60	65.60	65.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-23.30	-14.56	-8.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	42.31	51.04	56.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	282.76	282.76	282.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.36	0.38
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$3.89	$4.88	$6.04
Upside / Downside	-71.75%	-64.51%	-56.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	116.48	115.32	114.16	113.02	111.89	110.77	114.09
Payout Ratio	43.68%	52.94%	62.21%	71.47%	80.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	50.88	61.05	71.02	80.78	90.34	99.69	105.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	56.85	57.43	58.01
Year 2 PV (M)	61.58	62.84	64.12
Year 3 PV (M)	65.22	67.23	69.29
Year 4 PV (M)	67.91	70.73	73.63
Year 5 PV (M)	69.79	73.42	77.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,233.22	2,349.51	2,470.59
Equity Value (M)	2,554.57	2,681.16	2,812.85
Shares Outstanding (M)	282.76	282.76	282.76
Fair Value	$9.03	$9.48	$9.95
Upside / Downside	-34.34%	-31.09%	-27.70%

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Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd. (001318.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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