DDM Analysis: 000633.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.85 - $8.10	$4.45
Multi-Stage	$0.93 - $1.02	$0.97
Blended Fair Value	$2.71
Current Price	$6.58
Upside	-58.77%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-57.42%	7.34%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.14	0.14	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	44.60%	83.01%	-20.97%	1.36%	-99.34%	0.13%	-0.03%	16,388.05%	-19.96%	9.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	3.90%	2.12%	1.69%	0.01%	0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	15.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	13.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	3.14	1.96	1.18
Cash Retained (M)	13.46	13.46	13.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-3.14	-1.96	-1.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	10.32	11.50	12.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	385.85	385.85	385.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.03	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1.85	$4.45	$8.10
Upside / Downside	-71.81%	-32.36%	23.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	15.71	16.73	17.82	18.97	20.21	21.52	22.17
Payout Ratio	14.32%	29.45%	44.59%	59.73%	74.86%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.25	4.93	7.94	11.33	15.13	19.37	20.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4.55	4.59	4.63
Year 2 PV (M)	6.76	6.89	7.02
Year 3 PV (M)	8.90	9.16	9.42
Year 4 PV (M)	10.97	11.39	11.82
Year 5 PV (M)	12.96	13.59	14.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)	315.20	330.43	346.23
Equity Value (M)	359.35	376.05	393.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	385.85	385.85	385.85
Fair Value	$0.93	$0.97	$1.02
Upside / Downside	-85.85%	-85.19%	-84.51%

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Xinjiang Hejin Holding Co.,Ltd (000633.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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