DDM Analysis: 000017.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.39 - $0.56	$0.47
Multi-Stage	$0.57 - $0.63	$0.60
Blended Fair Value	$0.54
Current Price	$6.60
Upside	-91.87%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	40.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	40.16

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.07	5.05	3.03
Cash Retained (M)	40.16	40.16	40.16
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.07	-5.05	-3.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	32.09	35.12	37.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	687.90	687.90	687.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.05	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.39	$0.47	$0.56
Upside / Downside	-94.08%	-92.86%	-91.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	40.36	39.96	39.56	39.16	38.77	38.38	39.53
Payout Ratio	0.49%	18.39%	36.29%	54.19%	72.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.20	7.35	14.36	21.22	27.95	34.54	36.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.78%	9.78%	9.78%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	6.63	6.69	6.76
Year 2 PV (M)	11.67	11.91	12.15
Year 3 PV (M)	15.56	16.04	16.53
Year 4 PV (M)	18.48	19.25	20.04
Year 5 PV (M)	20.59	21.67	22.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	321.67	338.42	355.86
Equity Value (M)	394.61	413.98	434.13
Shares Outstanding (M)	687.90	687.90	687.90
Fair Value	$0.57	$0.60	$0.63
Upside / Downside	-91.31%	-90.88%	-90.44%

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Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited (000017.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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