Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$789.57 - $3,936.94$1,652.88
Multi-Stage$440.32 - $481.06$460.32
Blended Fair Value$1,056.60
Current Price$263.96
Upside300.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS126.78%76.67%13.7326.096.631.440.530.230.060.050.050.05
YoY Growth---47.38%293.29%360.69%172.44%130.91%292.86%7.69%8.33%0.00%7.74%
Dividend Yield--5.20%12.78%2.65%0.91%0.75%0.15%0.03%0.03%0.04%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,756.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,580.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,176.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)951.20594.50356.70
Cash Retained (M)2,176.002,176.002,176.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-951.20-594.50-356.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,224.801,581.501,819.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)240.25240.25240.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.106.587.57
LTM Dividend per Share10.7410.7410.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.106.587.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.8417.3218.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$789.57$1,652.88$3,936.94
Upside / Downside199.12%526.18%1,391.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,756.005,065.145,394.375,745.016,118.436,516.136,711.62
Payout Ratio54.25%61.40%68.55%75.70%82.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,580.003,109.893,697.754,348.915,069.095,864.526,208.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,862.662,889.802,916.93
Year 2 PV (M)3,133.213,192.893,253.13
Year 3 PV (M)3,392.013,489.383,588.60
Year 4 PV (M)3,639.423,779.393,923.35
Year 5 PV (M)3,875.794,063.004,257.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)88,884.0493,177.1797,634.61
Equity Value (M)105,787.14110,591.63115,573.99
Shares Outstanding (M)240.25240.25240.25
Fair Value$440.32$460.32$481.06
Upside / Downside66.81%74.39%82.25%

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